Program Manager of Economic and Demographic Forecasting

  • San Diego Association of Governments - SANDAG
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Full Time Economics Management Program Management Research

Job Description

Economic and Demographic Analysis and Modeling Program

The Data, Analytics, and Modeling Department provides SANDAG member agencies, elected officials, other organizations, and the public with information and technical resources for regional planning, funding, and policymaking efforts. The department represents a broad range of expertise from land use and transportation modeling, programming and website development, applied social research, public safety, demographics, and economics. The common theme is data. The information the department gathers, analyzes, produces, delivers, and maintains is essential to the success of SANDAG. The Economic and Demographic Analysis and Modeling (EDAM) team develops socioeconomic forecasts of population, housing, employment, income, and land use, and conducts analyses to support research and planning studies as well as policy development initiatives. As regional issues become more complex, the demands and expectations of our modeling program have also increased. To meet these challenges, SANDAG has committed the resources necessary to develop a more robust, agile, and integrated modeling infrastructure.


Program Manager Role

The Program Manager leads a team of five highly-talented professionals who develop and maintain regional and sub-regional models, produce estimates and forecasts of demographic, economic, and land use data, and perform complex analyses for projects and studies. The economic and demographic modeling function is highly integrated with the transportation modeling function, and this position works closely with the Manager of Transportation Analysis and Modeling, and project managers throughout the organization to support short- and long-term regional planning activities. The ability to provide strategic leadership and technical expertise for program enhancement efforts and manage multiple inter-departmental and cross-functional project teams is an essential part of the role.


Job Responsibilities

This position is best suited for an experienced, hands-on, economic or demographic modeling professional with expertise in leading a technical team. We anticipate career development will occur while working on the types of duties and responsibilities described below and through mentoring and close collaboration with agency executives. Examples of primary responsibilities include:

  • Manage a service-oriented modeling program that focuses on providing consistent, accurate information to customers within the agency and throughout the San Diego region; coordinate, review, and evaluate staff, resources, budget, work plans, and projects assigned to the EDAM team.
  • Work in close collaboration with SANDAG executive team members, internal project partners and clients, and consultants to manage and coordinate multiple program areas and long-range projects with competing and interdependent timelines.
  • Supervise, mentor, train, and provide career development opportunities for a team of professional and technical staff with expertise in regional economics and demography, programming, and modeling.
  • Provide strategic vision and technical expertise in the field of regional data modeling systems and participate in the development of public policy recommendations on issues such as population growth, transportation, housing, environmental management, economic development, public safety, and binational coordination.
  • Oversee economic and demographic model development, estimation, programming, calibration, validation, application, and documentation of forecasting models.
  • Oversee and conduct complex research, statistical analysis, and modeling related to socioeconomic forecasts, and demographic and economic analysis.
  • Ensure modeling technologies, tools, and analytical capabilities are reliable, credible, and are effective for supporting long-range planning efforts such as The Regional Plan, Regional Growth Forecasts, various grant programs, and other initiatives supporting affordable housing, sustainable communities, smart growth, and other such initiatives.
  • Oversee the development and maintenance of technical documentation for economic and demographic forecasting programs and procedures; ensure accurate and organized records and reports.
  • Develop and implement new or revised programs, policies, procedures, and methods of operation; monitor and evaluate various systems and processes; recommend and implement enhancements to ensure effective systems and services are in place.
  • Coordinate and/or participate on inter-departmental and inter-agency teams assembled for modeling, analyses, and planning related projects; foster collaborative working relationships with local jurisdictions, Caltrans, and other public agencies.
  • Prepare and present written, oral, and visual reports to policy and stakeholder committees, member agencies, community groups, private organizations, and members of the public.
  • Develop Requests for Proposals, scopes of work, and project budgets; evaluate competitive project proposals and make recommendations for consultant selection; manage project consultants and ensure projects are completed on schedule, within the prescribed budget, and with a high-level of effectiveness.
  • Coordinate the development and administration of the annual budget for the EDAM team; forecast additional funds needed for staffing, equipment, materials, and supplies; monitor and approve expenditures; prepare and implement budgetary adjustments as necessary.
  • Provide highly technical and complex assistance to the Department Director of Data, Analytics, and Modeling and serve on the department’s management team.


Experience and Qualifications

Numerous factors contribute to an individual’s ability to be successful in any given role. For this position, we are searching for a candidate who can lead and manage, and who has an aptitude for strategic and analytical thinking, the ability to work collaboratively, and exceptional communication skills

The minimum education, training, and experience qualifications include a bachelor’s degree with major coursework in economics, demography, geography, planning, mathematics, or a related field and seven years of recent experience leading regional land use, real estate, demographic, or economic forecasting and estimation projects and programs, including two years of supervisory experience.

The following information describes the specific types of career experiences that are most relevant to this position.

  • Experience supervising and evaluating the work of professional and technical personnel; experience providing administrative and professional leadership and direction for assigned programs.
  • Demonstrated experience managing or leading a comprehensive, service-oriented modeling program; ability to integrate excellent technical abilities and knowledge with a big-picture understanding of the regional planning process. 
  • Demonstrated experience monitoring program and project performance measures including budget, schedule, and resource requirements; experience coordinating project teams and monitoring work performance; experience providing project coordination, project control, and support for assigned initiatives.
  • Demonstrated experience managing a complex system of regional data models; ability to deploy state-of-the art methods for efficient maintenance, quality control procedures, and to verify the accuracy and reliability of the tools.
  • Knowledge of the principles, practices, and objectives of regional planning, and experience leading staff in producing estimates and forecasts of demographic, economic, land use, and real estate data, and performing complex analysis for projects and studies.
  • Direct experience in the development and use of regional forecasting models and sub-regional growth allocation models; experience with model development, estimation, programming, calibration, validation, application, and documentation of economic and demographic forecasting models.
  • Familiarity with formalized data governance processes and procedures.
  • Knowledge of statistical theory, methods, and programs used to analyze data and estimate various econometric parameters for demographic and economic models.
  • Knowledge of economic forecasting applications and software, and computer programming languages such as Python, SQL, SPSS, SASS, and R.
  • Demonstrated ability to establish and maintain effective working relationships with those contacted in the course of work including agency and other government officials and community groups; the ability to gain cooperation and consensus through discussion and persuasion.
  • Experience communicating highly technical information effectively, both orally and in writing; to a broad range of audiences; ability to prepare and deliver public presentations and recommendations regarding various program elements to upper management, Boards, community groups, and other audiences.
  • Experience coordinating projects through consultants including development of RFPs or other bid solicitations, scopes of work, budgets, and schedules, consultant/vendor selection, and contract management.
  • Knowledge of the principles and practices of budget preparation and administration; ability to develop accurate budget projections with subsequent administration and control of expenditures; ability to analyze and interpret financial data and prepare reports and recommendations.
  • The selected candidate can anticipate a driving record check upon hire, and approximately annually thereafter. The results of the check may determine whether the selected candidate will be permitted to drive for SANDAG business.


Salary and Benefits

SANDAG rewards the efforts of its employees with a comprehensive compensation package. Competitive salaries are supplemented with a flexible offering of health, financial security, and time-off benefits to meet the work and life needs of employees and their families.

This Program Manager position has an annual salary range of $82,989 to $132,783; the starting salary will depend on the qualifications and experience of the selected candidate.

Our benefits include traditional health, dental, and vision insurance as well as employee assistance, wellness, and work/life balance programs. Retirement and financial security benefits are provided through a pension plan and deferred compensation program. And to support the need to rest and rejuvenate, employees are provided with a bank of paid time off in addition to paid holidays.


How to Apply

We encourage all interested candidates to apply for this position by completing a SANDAG Employment Application form. Resumes, cover letters, and work samples may be submitted in addition to the Employment Application but are not a substitute for this document.
The Employment Application can be downloaded in PDF format from the SANDAG website. Alternatively, a copy can be requested by calling (619) 699-1900 or emailing hr@sandag.org. Completed applications and related materials can be submitted via email, fax, regular mail, courier, or delivered by hand. See our Careers / How to Apply webpage for additional information.

This position is Open until Filled. The first review of applications for the position will begin on June 29, 2018.

In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), SANDAG will accommodate persons who require assistance in order to apply for a position at SANDAG. Applicants requiring an accommodation due to a disability during any stage of the recruitment and selection process, including requesting this document and related application materials in an alternative format, should make their needs known by contacting Human Resources at (619) 699-1900, (619) 699-1904 (TTY), fax (619) 699-6905, or hr@sandag.org.


Additional Application Requirement

To help us further evaluate the skills and experience of individuals interested in this position, applicants are asked to respond to the Supplemental Questions below. The information can be up to 500 words and should be submitted with the Employment Application. This is considered a required component of the application; applications received without a response will be screened out of the selection process.


Supplemental Questions

1. At a programmatic level, describe the strategies and steps you have used to ensure the quality and accuracy of data used in forecasting.

2.
Describe your approach to leadership and provide an example of a recent leadership success. 


Candidate Selection and Notification

Following the first review date for applications, all candidates will receive written confirmation that their application was received. The hiring manager will begin reviewing and evaluating applications within a few days of the first review date. The best qualified candidates will be invited to continue in the selection process. All candidates will receive written notification as to the final outcome of their application.


Further Information

The SANDAG website contains a wealth of information about our various project and program areas. The Careers section of the site lists all of our current Job Openings as well as information on how to apply for positions and Frequently Asked Questions about our recruitment process.

In compliance with the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, applicants hired by SANDAG must show acceptable proof of identity and evidence of authorization to work in the United States.

SANDAG is an Equal Opportunity Employer